Ubuntu has over 8 million users
December 30, 2006
According to Mark Shuttleworth in an interview published today in the Red Herring, Ubuntu now has over 8 million users. The exact quote in the article was:
Q: What about growth in adoption rates, any kind of numbers that you can give me?
A: We know now that there are probably at least 8 million [Ubuntu] users.
So how that number compares to the other dominant operating systems out there?
Let’s have some fun with numbers and stats in a totally unscientific way. In a speech in December 2004, Steve Ballmer put the number of Microsoft users at 600 millions. In that same year, the Gartner Group estimates the number of PC users at around 661 millions (according to an CNet article in August 2004), growing to 953 millions by the end of 2008, and a billion in 2009. So that puts us at around 825 million PC users around now, late 2006.
According to the Internet World Stats site, there was 1.076 billion internet users in November 2006. I’m assuming the mismatch here (1.076 billion vs 0.825 billion) is mostly due to the fact that you can access the internet without a PC (think cell phone). So I’ll stick to that lower figure of 825 millions figure for below.
According to the w3schools web site, in November 2006 the OS market share of Windows was 86.1%, 3.3% for Linux, and 3.5% for Mac (and for July 2004 , it was 90.5% Windows, 3.1% Linux and 2.4% Mac). Remember that previously in 2004 we found that there were 600 million Windows users out of 661 millions? So that gives us a market share of 90.7% of Windows computers in 2004.
That 90.7% is close enough to 90.5% for 2004, and both numbers were obtained from two totally different sources, so that I would think that this estimate of w3schools of a 3.3% market share of Linux in November 2006 is a solid figure (solid enough for this rather unscientific blog post).
So we now have 3.3% of 825 million PC users. That give us 27.2 million Linux users today. Interestingly the Linux Counter was estimating 29 million Linux users in March 2005. So we are probably within the error bar of both this blog and their analysis.
To return to Mark Shuttleworth, 8 million Ubuntu users out of 27.2 million Linux users gives Ubuntu a 29% market share of the Linux pie, and a 1% market share of the total number of PC users worldwide. Pretty impressive numbers considering how old the Ubuntu project is.
How about Ubuntu Bug #1? To solve it you just need to move, let’s say 50% of the PC market share from Microsoft to Ubuntu, for a final tally of 51% Ubuntu, 36.1% Windows. Today in 2006 that means converting 412.5 million PC users to Ubuntu. If you wait another 2 years to get serious at it, and if you believe that estimate of 1 billion PC users by 2009, then that means 100 million more users need to be switched over for a total of 500 million Microsoft to Ubuntu switchers. So the user base of Ubuntu simply has to grow by 50 to 60 times over in the next two years to achieve that goal in that bug report.
Maybe the Ubuntu crowd needs a new slogan. How about “Have you converted someone to Ubuntu today?” 
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1.
Bob | December 30, 2006 at 4:40 am
I have no idea how Shuttleworth knows there is 8m users, that seems like complete voodoo to me, especially if it’s going off downloads.
Anyway, the w3schools numbers are hopelessly off - only web developers use that site and web developers IMO are far more likely to be using mac or linux than the full population are. Linux counter also suffers from a terrible estimation method, especially since they have empirical date for less than 1% of what they estimate. The only source which has hard empirical data for a fairly unbiased population, Google, shows it at 1%.
Linux has an uphill struggle. Asia, in general, is hardcore into Windows and Asia is the big growth market. Windows is pirated to hell even by OEMs so there is no cost advantage to Linux on licenses.
Ubuntu has a lot of work to do. I hope you manage it, but personally I think Apple has a lot more chance than Linux does for the desktop, especially with the emergence of DRM heavy stuff that normal users want to do (ITMS, iPods w/ encrypted AAC, HDDVD/Bluray, etc etc) that will be nigh-on impossible to do legally for Linux.
2.
Søren Hansen | December 30, 2006 at 11:00 am
About the mismatch between number of computers vs. number of internet users: Many homes only have one computer, but each person in the house counts as an internet user. Well, if they have an internet connection, that is.
Additionally, many people who do now own a computer use the Internet in Internet cafés, public libraries etc. I doubt that cell phones mean very much in this equation.
3.
Noé | December 30, 2006 at 11:02 am
No !
We don’t want a monopoly for Ubuntu, what the world really need is diversity. If no OS had more than 20 % of market share (counting GNU/Linux like one OS), then hardware companies would be forced to publish their specs, and everybody would be free to choose his software.
4.
foncu | December 30, 2006 at 12:55 pm
I completely agree with Noé. Monooly is not good, even if it was Ubuntu. We all need more options to choose.
5.
saharvetes | December 30, 2006 at 1:14 pm
s/millions/million/g
Please?
6.
Estratégia Livre »&hellip | December 30, 2006 at 4:09 pm
[...] Via Robitaille’s Blog [...]
7.
robitaille | December 30, 2006 at 4:25 pm
Sorry about the “millions” vs “million”. I’m not always that fluent in my 2nd language…
8.
Pete | December 30, 2006 at 7:23 pm
Linux will not need 51% market share to displace microsoft. As Mac eats into its market share as well, shooting for 40% may be more realistic?
9.
nonnano | December 31, 2006 at 7:46 pm
“Have you converted someone to Ubuntu today?” ?
Try “Have you converted some corporation to Ubuntu today?”.
It’s a lot harder. Actually mostly impossible until Ubuntu does smooth and robust centralized management for all the most common tasks.
10.
Cost Per News » Ubu&hellip | January 1, 2007 at 2:30 am
[...] Read this and then read this… [...]
11.
frankps » Blog Arch&hellip | January 17, 2007 at 7:40 am
[...] I wrote in “How the OS market changed in 2006“. But then again, it fits better with this: In a speech in December 2004, Steve Ballmer put the number of Microsoft users at 600 millions. In [...]
12.
Andrea | January 19, 2007 at 10:53 am
i think shuttleworks estimates that … how ? let’s say from how many uniques systems (ip check?) downloads updates from the servers
13.
jonathan | June 13, 2007 at 11:17 am
ok, and what about us users who have dual boot setups? I enjoy working under ubuntu, but for some things i need to use XP.
Some of those so called linux users would have tried it once, maybe installed a dual boot setup, but still use windows.
i totally agre with the guy above somewhere. It might be easy to get a single user to try linux/mac but to get a massive company… not going to happen when they have specialised software designed for windows OS.
14.
xxx | July 7, 2007 at 7:39 pm
ubuntu rule!!
15.
Bianco | October 18, 2007 at 3:19 am
I think that if linux become more unified instead of creating so many distros, then it will suppress anything. As for the GUI Gnome should become the standard, there should be created some standards for linux, in that way many users will not be so lost. Also invite proprietary applications to port them to linux. Also there are a lot of gamers, who just use windows for gaming, and if linux could offer this in a great scale, will grow better. And Mac, I think is mostly used by graphic designers, no more no less.
16.
Facts | March 17, 2008 at 9:41 pm
There R 2 reasons nobody uses Linux except programmers & a few ‘protest dorks’.
1) It’s not menu-driven. U must B a programmer or hard core geek 2 wanna’ bother with it. & U don’t really need it either. I sell 12TB servers running on WinDoze ‘95. Sure Micro$cam says it can’t B done, but actually it’s quite easy (Maxblast 3.6) & FASER than Linux (no overhead
Oh, & nice n’ easy MENU-DRIVEN!
2) It is a circle-jerk elitist ‘programmer clan’ clique. The ‘linux community’ is not even INTERESTED in making it easier 2 use. I’ve literally seen people posting a page full of PROGRAMMING LANGUAGE describing how 2 get a multi-monitor setup 2 work on SUSE. GET REAL! In Windows, U just click a fuking check box - DONE! HAHAHAHA But that’s not really my second point =) My second point really is, if U were interested in actually GROWING your market share, U would make it EASIER 2 install - FROM WITHIN WINDOWS. U do not, because, privately, gaining popularity is absolutely NOT your goal. Your goal is 2 make it overcomplicated as fuk 2 use, so as 2 generate ’support business’ - U know, IT jobs 4 ya’selves, etc.
If the Linux community actually wanted linux variants 2 become popular, they would find a way people could DOWNLOAD AND INSTALL LINUX EASILY ONLINE FROM WINDOWS WITHOUT HAVING TO BURN DVDS & OTHER RIDICULOUS OVERCOMPLICATED BULLSH*T!
It’ll B a cold day in hell when I burn a DVD just 2 check out 1 of 10 zillion half-baked hair-pulling exercizes called ‘linux’. The real world is filled with people like me - so U may as well stop making excuses. NONE OF YOU actually want Linux 2 become popular. U R just into your technical clique masturbation.
& yes I’ve tried the so-called ‘linux install from online’ tools - they don’t work. Screw it. XP SP3 is actually quite flexible, & halfway stable as well. I had been using a frankenstein ‘98 up until 6 months ago when SP3 became available - because everything between was sh*t. Vista is sh*t 2. I’ll maybe get into Vista after there R some patches 4 the ‘long goodbye’ & other purposely-crippled nonsense MicroFuk has shoved in there.
17.
harry | April 24, 2008 at 10:28 pm
if i cud do anything for spreading ubuntu linux ill certainly do it in the future, there’s too many advantages that ubuntu has but we have to make sure people release it, it may take a long time for people who get used to something to switch something else, but with appropriate guidance, they will see what we see in Ubuntu!
18.
ethana2 | April 25, 2008 at 9:43 pm
I’ve been using Ubuntu for a year now, and it’s much easier to use, the UI just makes more sense than anything else. My mom uses it today, my grandma will use it in a month.
There’s a reason all those old people have been scared of computers for so long– and I believe that reason is windows.